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Independent brands actively respond to the concerns of the industry about "banning the sale of fuel vehicles". It is too radical and risky.

in 2017, the biggest impact on global automotive enterprises is that countries plan to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. Among them, the statement of the Chinese government that "the study on the timetable for the suspension of production and sale of traditional fuel vehicles has been launched" has attracted the highest attention. China is not the first country in the world to declare a ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, but as the world's largest auto production and sales country, the changes in China's auto industry policies have a direct impact on the trend of the global auto industry

since California first proposed a plan to ban the listing of traditional fuel vehicles in 2030 in 2015. In just two years, at least seven countries and regions have proposed a "timetable for banning fuel vehicles", including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands and India. The statements of these countries on banning the sale of fuel vehicles are mainly concentrated in the second half of 2017. However, many countries have not explicitly adopted the word "forbidden". Norway, Germany, India, France, for the time being, are in the "planned" state, and only the UK has announced the final time point by decree

the Chinese government followed Europe and the United States to consider banning the sale of fuel vehicles, not to follow the trend, but to have practical considerations. In the field of traditional automobile, it is very difficult for Europe and the United States to catch up with the key technology of domestic dynamic mechanical property testing instruments, which marks great progress. In order to seize the commanding height of the new round of automotive industry revolution, the Chinese government takes the development of new energy vehicles such as electric vehicles as a means of overtaking the automotive industry, and deliberately avoids the transitional stage of using vertical fibers to make hybrid power - hybrid technology is currently monopolized by the Japanese automotive industry, and it is difficult for Chinese auto companies to break through

the international "covetous eyes" on fuel vehicles is not enough to make Chinese car companies change their development strategies, but the release of the Chinese government's signal has enabled Chinese car companies to embark on a radical road to the elimination of fuel vehicles. In 2017, enterprises including Chang'an Automobile, BAIC, Chery, Geely and so on followed closely to release their own sales ban schedule. According to their respective plans, these enterprises will probably stop selling traditional fuel vehicles around 2025

but in fact, the statement of the Chinese government only conveys the government's judgment on the future development trend of China's auto industry, and does not clarify the time, scope, specific objects and other information of the ban. At a recent meeting, Wan Gang, Minister of the Ministry of science and technology, made it clear that "the internal combustion engine will remain the main force of the market for a long time, and it has an irreplaceable position, especially in freight, passenger transport and ship transportation, and plays a decisive role."

although developing new energy vehicles and banning the sale of fuel vehicles are regarded as the future trend of the automotive industry, the current conditions are still immature. In the view of experts, however, it is still faced with the problems of "no access to business" and "it is easy to apply for licenses and difficult to apply for licenses". The prohibition of fuel vehicles involves many links in the industrial chain. If you want to force enterprises to carry out technological innovation and industrial transformation, it is really necessary to plan ahead and make a timetable in advance. But the question is, in the face of China's complex national conditions, immature technology, imperfect infrastructure and many other problems, is it necessary for us to ban fuel vehicles according to the timetable of Europe and the United States, or even more radical than them

many experts believe that the government does not need to propose to eliminate or promote some technologies, but only need to formulate technical standards in line with energy conservation and environmental protection. For cars, the strictest standard, like other polyurethane materials, is zero emission. In addition, it also gives some suggestions, including the prohibition of fuel vehicles should be promoted by regions and models; In the way of prohibition, we should not adopt a one size fits all timetable, but should adopt a gradual approach, from big cities to rural areas, and so on

on the road of zero emissions, all kinds of technical routes such as pure electric, fuel cell, hybrid, ethanol fuel are struggling. In this regard, car companies also adopt a diversified development path. Zetsche, chairman of Daimler group, said: "no one can accurately predict what will happen in the next 15 to 20 years. For car companies, it is best to make various preparations." At the Frankfurt auto show last year, Mercedes Benz showed off the latest technologies in pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, fuel vehicles with efficient power, and even the controversial diesel vehicles in Germany

Toyota, another auto giant, has also adopted various technical routes such as electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells, etc. In China, the voice of diversified development has always been high. At the China electric vehicle 100 people's meeting in January, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of science and technology and other departments proposed two important changes in the development and outlook of new energy vehicles in the past: one is to strengthen supervision; The second is to examine the development of electric vehicles, formulate more reasonable policies and development rhythm, and have a profound discussion on the diversification of new energy

for China's automobile industry, blindly advocating the prohibition of fuel vehicles will bring disaster rather than opportunity to enterprises under immature conditions. At present, Chinese independent brands are actively following up on the prohibition of fuel vehicles, even more radical than foreign auto giants, and may have taken the lead on the surface momentum. But waiting for Chinese independent brands may be the beginning of another crisis

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