After the hottest five years, it will account for

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Five years later, it will account for 3%, and the folding screen will become a "mystery" in the future

electromechanical; Mechanical and electrical products; Electronic appliances; Folding screen; Information Delivery; Industry information; Although the concept of folding screen intelligence is very popular in the market, the mainstream adoption is still far away

strategy analytics emerging device technology (EDT) research service released the global display technology forecast: report, which shows that by 2024, the global folding screen market share will exceed 3%

the biggest evidence for this prediction is that folding screens of major brands in the market are frequently faulty, and many devices are still in the conceptual stage. The world's two hottest folding screens, Samsung Galaxy fold and Huawei mate x, have also been delayed due to various potential problems. Today's folding screen market has been relatively calm, both consumers and practitioners

pingwest PinWan interviewed several on-site audience who had a long queue to experience Samsung Galaxy fold 5g at ifa2019 in Berlin, Germany. Their responses were unanimous, curious, just looking. Although there may be limitations in randomly sampling data for the current situation of prominent downward pressure in industries such as chemical industry and nonferrous metals, it is enough to explain the problem to a certain extent: the public is still curious about folding screens, And this curiosity is not enough to translate into the purchase of Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. under the premise of high price and not knowing whether it can be durable, which has a strong reputation and purchasing power across the country

durability is the main concern of potential folding screen smart buyers. Manufacturers must work hard and spend a lot of marketing expenses to let consumers know that these devices are durable in daily use, Ken Hyers, director of strategy analytics, pointed out

Ville petteri ukonaho, deputy director of strategy analytics, said that folding screen intelligence will be a super high-end category and an expensive new device that a limited customer base can afford. Folding screen intelligence will initially be mainly aimed at business users. For this customer group, the price may not be a problem, but for mainstream adoption, its price must be reduced

Samsung tells you how difficult it is to develop folding screens

if you want to ask how difficult it is to develop and mass produce folding screens, Samsung may be able to answer you better

Samsung can be said to be the first manufacturer to develop foldable screens. As early as 2008, Samsung showed its flexible OLED screen for the first time. Subsequently, at CES 2011 in the United States, Samsung showed a prototype of a flexible AMOLED screen

▲ flexible OLED screen displayed by Samsung in 2008

in 2014, Samsung released a concept video of folding screen. In terms of form, the folding design is the prototype of Samsung Galaxy fold

▲ Samsung announced the folding screen concept video in 2014

subsequently, Samsung folding screen continued to appear ticket skipping events, until 2017, all rumors finally settled

when we are fully prepared, we will release the foldable device. It is expected that next year (2018), Samsung CEO Gao Dongzhen said in a media interview in 2017 that Samsung has not lied this time

Samsung folding screen has been rumored for a long time. It hasn't really been mass produced since I went to high school and worked after I graduated from university. A Samsung fan told pingwest PinWan

in November 2018, Samsung announced its new infinity flex folding display technology for the first time at its annual developer conference. Subsequently, in February 2019, Samsung Galaxy fold was officially released

▲ Samsung Galaxy fold

from the first exposure of Samsung's flexible OLED screen, the research and development process of Samsung folding screen has taken 10 years, which is not counting the research and development time before 2008

however, the 10-year long R & D front has not brought Samsung true technological maturity. At the same time, the supply chain of folding screen has not been improved in the past 10 years. In April 2019, the launch of Samsung Galaxy fold was postponed due to defects in the design of hinges and screen protectors

ifixit, a well-known disassembly organization, said that due to the lack of waterproof and particle proof protection in the hinge design, as well as the 7mm gap at both ends of the hinge, external impurities such as dust will easily enter the sensitive AMOLED panel, resulting in failures

▲ Samsung Galaxy fold hinge design

in order to solve this problem, Samsung has successively introduced three new patents and proposed three improvement measures, thus ensuring that Samsung Galaxy fold finally came into the market after five months of delay

facts speak louder than words. Even if you (Samsung) have the most powerful OLED screen R & D conditions and perfect industrial chain in the world, you can't guarantee to have 100% confidence in the research and development of folding screen

According to foreign media reports, Samsung Galaxy fold, which has been delayed for five months, has performed strongly in the Korean and German markets

allaboutsamsung said that the Samsung Galaxy fold 5g version in the German market was completely sold out within 30 minutes of its launch. At the same time, due to the unexpected market performance, the Korean market has added 4000 to 6000

however, this eye-catching report card is not enough to prove that the folding screen is mature. Some industry analysts pointed out that there are still difficulties in mass production of polyimide film (PI film) covering Samsung Galaxy fold screen, which is known as one of the most promising engineering plastics in the 21st century

▲ PI film production process

pingwest PinWan learned that PI film is the best film insulation material in the world at present, with excellent high and low temperature resistance, electrical insulation, adhesion, radiation resistance and other characteristics, so it is used to replace the traditional ITO film/glass, and is widely used in the substrate, cover plate and touch materials in folding screens

▲ the location of traditional OLED screen ITO panel

market data shows that at present, the R & D and manufacturing technology of global high-performance PI film are still monopolized by the United States, Japan and South Korea, and production capacity (to achieve large-scale mass production and commercial use) is still a big problem

experiments can be carried out under the above various motion situations ▲ flexible OLED screen module

in addition to PI film (glass substrate/film, TFT glass/film material above), polarizer, OCA optical adhesive (photoresist) and other raw materials also have the above problems. What is more annoying is that the ongoing trade war between Japan and South Korea has also added a lot of obstacles to the entire OLED flexible screen industry chain

pingwest PinWan learned that fluorinated polyimide (raw material of PI film), photoresist, and hydrogen fluoride are all important raw materials in the semiconductor industry at present, and are necessary raw materials for Korean Samsung, LG and other enterprises to produce OLED flexible screens, while Japan, which is prohibited from exporting to South Korea, is the main production and supply country of these three raw materials. The trade war between Japan and South Korea can be said to worsen the folding screen market, which already has many technical barriers

besides OLED screen itself, foldable hinge design is also a big problem. Although Samsung had made great efforts in the hinge, it was still found to have defects when it was sold in April. The large openings at the upper and lower ends of the hinge made it easy for dust and other external impurities to enter the sensitive AMOLED panel, causing failure

for this reason, Samsung narrowed the gap at both ends of the hinge and reinforced it with protective caps to prevent impurities from entering. At the same time, Samsung also added a layer of metal under the folding screen to make it with the hinge necklace, so as to solve the problem of unevenness after the product was unfolded before

from the perspective of ifa2019 live experience, the new Samsung Galaxy fold folding screen will hear a click when it is opened, and then the screen will tighten and stretch in place, and the screen will not shake any more. In addition to Samsung, Huawei mate X has also made great efforts in the design of hinges. It is reported that its hinge research and development took three years, including more than 100 components. It is reported that Huawei mate x will be officially launched in October

▲ Huawei mate x

difficulties in the design of flexible OLED screens and hinges have led to insufficient capacity and poor yield in the folding screen supply chain. At the same time, experience problems such as thickness, endurance and heat dissipation also need to be solved

the deputy general manager of WitsView research of trendforce optoelectronic research center once told the media that the current challenges of folding components mainly lie in folding AMOLED panels, especially in folding tolerance and folding radius. Secondly, in order to meet the folding requirements and at the same time, there should be no compromise on the protection strength, the material of the cover plate will also be a development bottleneck. The problem of its own design is how to maintain a size similar to the current mainstream products in volume (especially thickness)

the use scenario of the folding screen is still open to discussion

even if it is extremely difficult, even if the market share may not be large in the future, no manufacturer will stand by coldly in the face of an emerging smart differentiation market that may become the future, whether you are an industry leader like Xiaomi and oppo, or a manufacturer like Google and TCL that seems to have little to do with hardware

in June 2019, Google announced its patent for folding screen. Unlike Samsung's inside fold and Huawei's outside fold 3-poly environmental protection, which adopted new coal coking technology and modern coal chemical technology to comprehensively transform and upgrade the coal coking enterprise with an annual output of 1.1 million tons of metallurgical coke in 7 Taihe City, Heilongjiang Province, Google's folding screen includes multiple folding screens, which can turn pages like a book. With the addition of Google, this segmented market, which seems unable to achieve rapid growth, has become more and more interesting

however, due to its current high price and experience limitations, folding screen is destined to be a niche market in the next few years. Maybe like Samsung W series, folding screen is just a sign of identity for high-end business people in a short time

to achieve faster and more market growth, the rich app ecosystem and the accompanying special scene design have become the key

judging from the current application scenarios of folding screen, it seems that the folding screen is just a flat-panel two in one product, and the advantageous scene experience brought by the large screen is pale in front of the price. At the same time, many users are still in a wait-and-see state because of the insecurity brought by emerging categories

pingwest PinWan believes that if the folding screen wants to achieve stable growth, its unique and irreplaceable use scenario is very critical, and at present, this scenario still needs to be explored. At the same time, excellent machine experience is also very important

take Samsung Galaxy fold as an example. Although it makes the folded proportion very slender for the sake of excellent hand-held feeling, it will be slightly embarrassed with the tablet mode at present

▲ Samsung Galaxy fold

the screen is small after folding, and the screen proportion is strange after opening. A Samsung fan after ifa2019 on-site experience told pingwest pinplay, but it's really good-looking and handsome

folding screen devices will create their own categories in intelligence, just as the first note established the classification of tablets. Although the concept of folding screen intelligence is very popular, mainstream adoption is still far away, Ken Hyers, director of strategy analytics, concluded

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