After the hottest glass rose sharply, the risk gra

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After the sharp rise of glass, the risk gradually increased

supply and demand showed a tight balance. Since the end of July, the glass market has reached a climax again, expanding from the strong pull of the markets in South and central China to the nationwide general rise. In the past more than a month, the glass futures 1701 contract has increased by nearly 15%, and the price focus is constantly rising

regional markets are competing to raise prices

manufacturers' price increases drive market confidence. From the performance of regional markets, Shahe glass has maintained a slow bull market since the beginning of the year, with price increases of 10-20 yuan/ton each time, with monthly increases of 50 yuan/ton. It is this small step-by-step rise that has satisfied the market appetite and made downstream manufacturers readily accept it. Coupled with the expected preference for the future market, traders' purchase speed has not decreased

the price rise rhythm in the southern market is different from that in the north. In the first quarter, under the pressure of increasing net production capacity, prices in Central China fell sharply, and then deadlocked in the rainy season in June and July. Therefore, for a long time, prices in Central China have been in the depression of the national glass industry. The start of the market in Central China began after the resumption of shipping on the Yangtze River in late July. In the past more than a month, the prices of glass manufacturers have increased by an average of 390 yuan/ton, or 34%. Compared with central China, the South China market is better than others. Although the performance in the first half of the year was flat, it has increased by nearly 500 yuan/ton since late July, especially in the past more than a month, with an increase of 37.5%. At the same time, driven by the continuous rise in prices, downstream traders actively prepared goods, effectively transferring the inventory of production enterprises

the net increased production capacity is limited

glass production enterprises have a certain confidence that they can raise prices so significantly. At present, there are 352 float glass production lines in China, but there are only 240 in production, and more than 70 are in shutdown mode. From the perspective of overall industrial capacity since this year, the market has increased by 10 production lines, with a total daily output of 8220 tons. However, compared with the booming market this year, this data is not enough to pose a supply threat. Especially since the third quarter, although the market has performed well, the production capacity has not increased significantly. Generally speaking, it will take some time from ignition to the production of the guide plate. Manufacturers with the intention of ignition will choose to carry out it before the peak season. At present, it is difficult to see signs of centralized resumption of production or new production at the supply end in the peak season this year, and there is little pressure to increase production capacity

in terms of subregions, a total of 9 production lines were cold repaired in Hebei and Shandong this year, involving a total of 4830 tons of daily melting, while a total of 10 production resumption and new production capacity in the two places increased by 6600 tons/day. After offsetting, the net added capacity of the two major production areas of Hebei and Shandong is only 1770 tons/day. From the perspective of timeline, after actively integrating into the local development strategy in mid May, there will be no cold repair of domestic production capacity, and nearly 1/2 of the resumed production capacity will be ignited after June, which also shows that the actual production capacity in the northern market is decreasing in the first half of the year, providing a driving force for higher prices. Even after the launch of the market in July, there was a net increase in production capacity, but for the huge market production capacity, it is not enough to mention

the rhythm of price rise in the South and North markets is different, which is related to production capacity. Since this year, only three production lines have been cold repaired, and three of the four new production lines are from the south. With the three production lines resuming production, the capacity has increased by 2600 tons/day. In the context of capacity reduction, the pace of central and southern China is relatively slow, and the southern region is more affected by external factors, such as the storage and transportation of glass in rainy seasons, which will exert pressure on glass sales. However, as the impact of the rainy season on the market fades, prices in central and southern China are full of momentum

low inventory supported prices

since Jiangsu CR gradually withdrew from the market, the output value of the glass industry has declined as a whole. It was not until the beginning of this year that the year-on-year growth rate of glass production in that month was reversed to positive. The output of flat glass increased by 2.5% year-on-year in June and 6.7% year-on-year in July. However, while the output is increasing, the glass inventory is declining. Since the end of June, the inventory value of production enterprises has decreased sharply. At the end of June, the inventory of glass manufacturers fell by 4.7% year-on-year; At the end of July, inventory fell by 5.77% year-on-year; By the end of August, the figure had decreased by as much as 8.21%. This fully illustrates the improvement of the glass demand market and provides a strong impetus for manufacturers to raise prices step by step

whether the glass market can continue to improve depends on the digestion of the end market. In the second half of 2015, the real estate industry began to recover gradually, and this year it continued to ferment. Since the beginning of the year, the volume and price of the first and second tier cities have increased at the same time, which has triggered the emergence of "land kings" in many places. The cumulative area of new construction and sales of commercial housing has maintained a double-digit growth rate year-on-year. Statistics show that in the first seven months of 2016, the sales of 30 listed real estate enterprises totaled 1.33 trillion yuan, up 72.2% year-on-year, setting a new record. The booming real estate market has driven the market of building materials. In comparison, other black building materials are the front-end demand of the construction market, while glass is more late demand, so the completed area of real estate is the most direct indicator affecting the spot of glass. From the housing completion data, from January to July, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed area reached 21.3%, and it is in a rising stage, which also provides a guarantee for the demand for glass

in addition, since this year, house prices in many cities have soared, and the housing price index in 100 cities has reached new highs. In August, the average price of new houses in 100 cities across the country was 12270 yuan/square meter, with a month on month increase of 2.17%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, nearly 70 cities can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 270 kg in a year, and the house prices in the cities are rising. However, it is worth noting that with the continuous high temperature of property market transactions, local governments have successively launched regulatory measures. Hot cities with rapid growth in the early stage have launched policies such as purchase restrictions and increasing the proportion of down payment. In addition to the downward signal of house prices in Suzhou in August, most hot cities have not ended the upward trend. However, as the market transmission effect continues to appear, the regulation will be further tightened in the future, and more cities will join the regulation, and the market may gradually cool down. From the data released in the past three months, we can see that the year-on-year data of forward-looking indicators such as housing new construction, sales and real estate development investment have begun to narrow gradually. Considering the lag of glass demand, it is expected that glass consumption will be affected in the next two to six months

the trend of different contracts varies greatly

in the traditional sense, the peak sales season of glass starts from "golden September" and generally lasts until the end of November. Therefore, reflected in the futures disk, the highest point of the futures price may appear on the 1701 contract. However, considering that the market started the Bora rising market at the end of July this year, and showed a strong force of flood and famine, some manufacturers in South China even increased their quotations by 40 yuan/ton per day in mid August, resulting in the market's peak season market may be prepaid in advance. While f collected a data block, g1609 hit a high of 1358 yuan/ton. After mid August, the correlation between 1609 and other contract trends began to weaken. On the one hand, as the 1609 contract is close to delivery, it changes frequently with the spot market price, and the market is relatively independent; On the other hand, the factory and warehouse discount corresponding to the contract after 1612 has changed greatly. Except for Jinjing Technology (4.73,0.010,0.21%), all other factories and warehouses are flat, which more truly reflects the market pattern. In the long run, the contract prices of 1701 and 1705 may continue to expand

to sum up, this wave of rise in the glass spot market is mainly driven by the demand of the construction market. Whether the commercial housing inclined impact testing machine imitates the way that products resist impact damage in the actual environment, the upsurge in the completed area or the improvement in the number of second-hand housing transactions have stimulated the growth of glass demand. While the manufacturers raised the spot price, the low inventory and high production and sales rate all showed the signals of good operation of the industry, which gave manufacturers a certain confidence support. In this context, future glass prices will remain high and volatile. However, the risks associated with the rapidly rising market are often large. With the tightening of future real estate control policies again and the gradual cooling of the property market, the glass futures price will also be adjusted downward

global glass () Department

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