After the hottest Festival, steel prices continued

2022-08-09
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After the holiday, the steel price continued to be weak, and the industry expectation was still pessimistic

the performance of the steel market remained the same on the first trading day after the May Day holiday after the suspension of trading for more than three months due to major asset restructuring. Futures snails plunged sharply, down 2.59%, while the spot market continued to be weak before the holiday. In view of the current situation of "high production, high inventory and low demand" in the steel market, the industry's expectations for the later steel market are still pessimistic

on the first day after the small and long holiday (i.e. May 2), the snail 1310 contract continued to fall sharply after falling 1.26% on the last trading day before the holiday. Affected by the external market on the same day, the 1310 contract of futures conch jumped sharply and opened low at 3550 yuan/ton, and then it has been in a low-level fluctuation trend, and finally closed at 3542 yuan/ton. It fell by nearly 100 yuan in a single day, down as much as 2.59%

in addition, the coking coal 1309 contract also plummeted by 2.27%, and the decline of the coking coal 1309 contract is to take the large passenger aircraft project as the carrier, as high as 3.03%

the weak operation of the futures market and the pessimistic atmosphere of the spot market have also spread. According to the steel prices in major cities across the country summarized by "my steel", the average price of 12mmhrb400 deformed steel bars in 25 major markets across the country was 3851 yuan/ton that day, down 9 yuan/ton from before the festival, including a sharp drop of 60 yuan/ton in Zhengzhou market and a drop of yuan/ton in Shanghai, Tianjin, Nanjing and other places

looking back before and after this small and long holiday, the steel price seems to have always maintained a weak trend, and there is no significant increase compared with previous holidays. "This shows that businesses do not have much confidence in the later market," industry insiders said

with the end of the "May Day" holiday, it shows that the industry's eagerly awaited "golden three silver four" has really become the development of low-cost, high-yield and lightweight green cars, which has also become an unprecedented emergency in China, and the steel price has always gone through the traditional "peak season" with a weak decline

recently, the PMI of Hebei Iron and steel industry in April 2013 released by Hebei metallurgical industry association was 45%, down 0.8 percentage points month on month, below the boom and bust line for three consecutive months. As the largest steel production area in China, Hebei Province, its relevant data also indirectly reflect the current situation of China's steel industry. Among them, the new order index was 42.5%, still in the contraction range; The finished material inventory index was 51.2%, increasing for three consecutive months

in addition, the raw material inventory index in April was 41.7%, which has been declining for five consecutive months. It is reported that at present, due to financial pressure and the bearish price of raw materials, steel mills are more cautious in purchasing, and they are not active in the purchase of raw materials, mainly to replenish the stock on demand

in view of the current situation of "high production, high inventory and low demand" in the steel market, the industry's expectations for the future also appear not optimistic. UBS Securities believes that steel prices will continue to fall in the coming months, and the world economic forum also issued a warning trend, mainly due to the high supply and steel inventory, while seasonal demand will gradually weaken after May

some analysts pointed out that at present, the steel price has fallen to the edge of the production cost line of steel mills, many steel mills have made obvious losses, and the space for steel prices to continue to fall is very limited

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